Slowly but inexorably, certain regions of India are getting communally polarised. Somewhat underreported in the national media, a religiously divisive trend affecting Hindus and Muslims is striking deep roots, in Assam and West Bengal. As things stand, the next round of state Assembly elections in both states may well be dominated by considerations of the religious identities of major groups of people. Recent developments in these states can be better understood in the larger context of what happened in 1947, when communal politics did prevail in India over secular ideals. For Assam the present situation may have taken a communal turn now that the Indian National Congress(INC) and the All India United Democrat Front(AIUDF) have decided to come together in alliance to defeat the ruling BJP.
For the INC, the oldest national party in India and the biggest opposition force in India sworn to uphold the principles of secularisn and democracy as its policy, any partnership with the AIUDF could prove a high risk proposition. Its long term losses may outweigh its immediate gains. Despite periodic announcements from its leaders to the contrary, the AIUDF stands for only Muslims in Assam. Therefore its role is not very different from parties or groups like various Muslim –dominated groups/parties or partie in Kerala, Bengal or Telengana .Their activities are generally confined within the borders of the state they belong to. They may win a few seats at the national or the state level elections. They have often form part of ruling coalitions at the state/municipal levels, too. Usually the initiative to join a coalition comes from them out of an unstated motive to enjoy a slice of administrative power.
But the AIUDF is also somewhat different from other similar parties. It has over the years garnered major support from Assam-based Muslims, the majority of them Bengali-speaking. Its leader Badruddin Ajmal MP believes in keeping on the right side of Assamiya mainstream currents . He opposes illegal infiltration from Bangladesh and supports the Assam accord. This makes him acceptable to the Congress, as explained a few days by state party President Mr, Ripun Bora.
Until recently, the INC leaders used to treat the AIUDF as an outfit that really helped the BJP to grow in Assam. It was called the B team of the BJP. The near 35%+ Muslim vote which was won in bulk by the Congress for decades, ensuring it a comfortable victory for years, now gets divided with the AIUDF claiming a major share. The AIUDF responded to such charges by pointing to the failures of the INC to live up to the growing challenge of the BJP . And,the INC also failed to do much for Muslims, said Ajmal. The continuous and apparently irreversible decline of the Congress endangered the minorities, especially the Muslims, in Assam . As things stood, Muslims in Assam were always suspected of being illegal Bangladeshi setters and faced much discrimination in all spheres of life. There was little doubt that the AIUDF would try to emerge as a protector of Muslim interests and aspirations.
Significantly, the AIUDF has proved to the first Muslim oganisation to appreciate the inherent strength and political challenge posed by the community in terms of their growing numbers, infiltration or not. From dominating only 4 out of 20-odd districts in Assam during the nineties, Muslims have now emerged as the majority population in 11 out of 34 districts in the state. They are poised to become a majority in 4 more soon. Clearly there is greater awareness of their growing clout among them , carrying with it a corresponding community-based awareness that they are politically no pushovers.
Given this backdrop of declining INC fortunes and the emergence of the BJP in Eastern Indian states like Bihar , Bengal and Odisha in recent years, a Muslim consolidation in the region was only a matter of time. The AIUDF merely seized the moment and established itself as a factor to reckon with. Its emergence is also a clear signal to Muslims not to depend on the INC only to protect them. Now they have their own political instrument capable of setting its own terms to opponents or partners/allies alike.
Assam’s Education Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has hit the nail on the head , pointing out that the AIUDF stands for only itself and the interests of the Muslims. Along with other state and central BJP leaders, he is as worried as anybody else about the prospects of an INC/AIUDF alliance. The consolidation of Muslim votes going over to the coalition would make it tough for the BJP to win, because the Hindu Assamiya and Bengalis do not always constitute a single homogeneous voting group, having sharp differences among themselves.
Is Mr. Sarma right in expressing his fears of a Muslim takeover in Assam if parties like the AIUDF ever achiever power, whether in coalition or by other means ?
The answer is, such a possibility may seem remote as of now, but cannot be ruled out. The AIUDF stands for Muslim empowerment .Period. Even in a coalition, though Ajmal has announced that he will not press for the Chief Minister’s chair, the fact is given the continuing bleeding of the INC, the bigger party may well remain in effect a pliant partner of the AIUDF, which can forcefully drive its own community-driven agenda. Worse , the INC may lose many Bengali Hindu votes in Assam whereas while Muslims may vote for the AIUDF in major numbers. The INC stands to lose further ground in Assam on the long term, by aligning with the AIUDF .
Moreover, the INC will suffer a major loss of image prestige and credibility, by aligning with a party perceived to be communal, which would all be grist to the Bjp’s propaganda mill in the coming years. The very fact of the INC’s aligning with the AIUDF will be publicly seen as an opportunism move, as a sure sign of its desperation to come out of the cold and rule Dispur again—-and never mind political principles ! It will be the clearest affirmation made by the INC itself that it cannot win in Assam on its own steam any more . Having been thus reduced, it will not hesitate to become a junior partner in any formation even if it is dominated by a communal outfit.
That would be the sum total of the political message of any INC/AIUDF coalition. It is time for senior leaders like Tarun Gogoi and others to appreciate this.
(A veteran journalist, Ashis Biswas is news editor at Easternlink)
