In Bengal, something unthinkable has happened : India’s leading poll strategist Mr Prashant Kishor(PK) has now gone public during an ongoing, highly sensitive political assignment .
He has come out with an electoral prediction fir Bengal six months ahead of time ! His ultra sensitive style of work as head of the expert IPAC team of specialists/workers who help political parties to win elections in India is well known.
Since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, his IPAC team has been working for the Trinamool Congress(TMC) in Bengal , to help it win a third tenure in power.
There can be no denying that in breaking the first cardinal rule that research organisations follow—– never to comment on any ongoing project !—- Mr PK has killed several birds with one stone.
The Bengal-based media has seemingly concentrated on the obvious aspects of his tweet claiming that the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) will not win more than 100 seats ( its tally will remain in double digit figures) in the 2021 Assembly polls.
Laying his reputation on the line, Mr. PK has further declared his intent to quit his (political) space in case his prediction goes awry.
Naturally TMC leaders and their followers who control the local print/electronic media pretty effectively in Bengal, welcomed PK’s words and have highlighted them in their pre-poll campaign rhetoric.
Kolkata-based observers find Mr PK’s words more intriguing on a second, or third reading. He has not specifically said anything really, regarding the BJP’s prospects.
Between and including 10 and 99, all figures are double digit. As of now, the BJP has won over 40% of the popular vote in the 2019 LS polls with 18 seats. The TMC won 22 seats out of 42, losing 12 from the tally of 2014, winning over 43% of the aggregate vote.
Again assuming that each LS constituency covers on average 7 assembly segments, the BJP’s tally worked out at around 126 seats as against the TMC’s win in 154 assembly segments. Clearly, between 2014 and 2019, the anti incumbency factor has caught up with the TMC in a major way.
Given this backdrop, it is highly unlikely that PK is looking at the lower end of the road spectrum of figures beginning at 10 and ending at 99, in terms of the BJP’s seats in 2021.
Thanks to the Covid 19 pandemic and the following Amphan cyclone devastation , it has been very difficult for the state Government to carry out minimum relief for large segments of the people with its meagre resources stretched to the limit. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Ministers have admitted this publicly.
As for PK’s own pre election pitch specially worked out to pep up the TMC’ spirits on a very difficult wicket, the results have not been encouraging. Mass contact programmes such ‘Didike bolo’, ‘Mamata Banglar garbo’ etc were launched with much fanfare, but then sank without trace.
The reason : poor response and a lack of resources for the TMC to fulfill the massive demands of the people. The generally inept performance of the state administration did not help either.
There has been little law and less order in Bengal in recent months . Intra party violence within the TMC and its mass organsiations, between its senior members and younger members who accept only Mr, Abhishek Banerjee, the Chief Ministers’s celebrated high profile ‘nephew’, continues unabated.
IPAC members found the ground situation unsatisfactory and the public perception of TMC leaders at local levels in many districts strongly negative. They were reduced to approaching local leaders from Left and Congress parties to find out whether they would fight on a TMC ticket in 2021. Such news could not be suppressed in the local press, further embarrassing the IPAC and its leader.
With steady defections to the BJP continuing, it is common knowledge that the Chief Minister, alarmed at the slide, called up PK to attend the important core meet of TMC leaders at Kalighat on the night of Dec 13, 2020. TMC insiders say she asked PK right out,’Just what is going on here?’ Earlier attempts in which Mr PK was personally involved, seeking to keep the heavyweight TMC leader and Minister Suvendu Adhikary within the party had failed. He joined the BJP with several other MLAs , one MP and other lower level leaders.
Bottom line : Not just alarm bells are ringing for the TMC, but more importantly, time is running out for Mr PK and his IPAC team.
PK’s tweet is also revealing in that his double-edged prophecy will prove correct even if the BJP were to win, say between 90 and 99 seats in a house of 294. Such a scenario may well see the CPI(M)-led Left parties recover some of their lost ground because of their consistent campaigning and sustained relief work for the people, despite the TMC’s armed opposition.
Also,neither PK nor the leader he reports to, Mamata Banerjee have any idea of how many seats the Hyderabad-based AIMIM party will win in Bengal in 2021. Intelligence reports indicate a sizable following for the AIMIM in Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad districts.
All pre election analyses so far indicate that the TMC succeeded in 2019 LS polls in winning the maximum number of Muslim votes which it increased by 15% since 2014. On the other hand, it lost over 8% of Hindu voter support during the same period.
For the 2021 Assembly polls, a further consolidation of Hindu votes mainly supporting the BJP is currently under way. As for Muslim votes a split within the community in choosing between the TMC , the AIMIM and dissident leader Abbas Siddique in South Bengal looks inevitable.
Then there is the factor of dissidence within the TMC. These dissidents even during the 2018 Panchayat elections which the TMC swept, not allowing opposition parties to contest over 35% seats, ended up winning 24% of the aggregate vote. It was second only to the TMC’s 44% vote share, and well above the BJP’s share of 17%. How much damage the TMC will face from its dissidents in the 2021 polls ?
And the dissidents have made it amply clear they will not accept either Mr. Banerjee or Mr PK as their leaders. They swear to stand by Mamata Banerjee in public, but only on their own terms. The first prgramme in their agenda is : ‘End nepotism and outside interference within the TMC.’
Unfortunately that translates as ‘oppose Abhishek and throw out PK and his team’ in their political parlance.
No wonder Mr PK has somewhere in his message talked about ‘quitting’ space. In case he has to quit a little earlier ahead of schedule, no one should be surprised, on present indications.
( Ashis Biswas is a regular columnist with Easternlink but his views in this Opinion piece are strictly his personal take)
