Failing to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine to poor countries will cause global economic devastation, and affluent countries will be hit nearly as hard as those in the developing world, according to a new study to be released today.
In the most extreme scenario — with wealthy nations fully vaccinated by the middle of this year, and poor countries largely shut out — the study concludes that the global economy would suffer losses exceeding $9 trillion.
That’ a sum greater than the annual output of Japan and Germany combined.
In a more likely scenario, in which developing countries vaccinate half their populations by the end of the year, the world economy would still absorb a blow of between $1.8 trillion and $3.8 trillion.
The study, commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce, found that the continued pandemic in poor countries is likely to be worst for industries that are especially dependent on suppliers around the world.
Specially vulnerable are automotive, textiles, construction and retail, where sales could decline by more than 5 percent.
Economists affiliated with Koc University in Turkey, Harvard University and the University of Maryland examined trade data across 35 industries in 65 countries to assess the economic impacts of unequal vaccine distribution.
Courtesy – NYT